Crowded Trains, Traffic Jams and COEs - Fixes that Fail

Recently Minister Lui announced that COE quota will be cut in order to control the car population and traffic conditions in Singapore. Political pundits will have a field day with the "I told you so" post-election prophecies coming true - everything will go up to fatten the Ah Gong coffers.

While that may not be the true intent, you really cannot expect people NOT to think that way. The whole issue comes down to one thing - poor urban planning.

I dare say our top-notch scholarly civil servants are a different breed from their predecessors - they somehow seem to lack the foresight and testicular courage of our founding fathers. I mean, come on! Yes, we understand we need that critical mass of 6 to 8 million in order for Singapore to be a competitive economy. But it doesn't mean you have to put every mother son down south!

Look at where the congestion centers around - Orchard, the CBD area, Jurong...the whole country practically wakes up in the morning to either travel south on CTE to town, or travel westwards on PIE to Jurong. I have a friend whose office is at Yishun, and he enjoys the light traffic along Lentor every morning, laughing to himself as the other side of the road is bumper to bumper. You just need one fender-bender to close off one lane and jam up traffic.

While the solutions Ah Gong have in mind is to improve public transport so that people will give up driving to work, the public transport system is also reaching max capacity, and it takes 5 years more more to build that infrastructure. Sunzi says it is all about timing - when the eagle soars, it times the descent exactly at the moment the prey is vulnerable to go for the kill. The current slew of traffic control and public transportation woes all points to one thing - either bear with it, or stay home.

What I'm trying to say is, we need to re-organise the way we work. Spread the business centres of gravity across the island, and with it the supporting amenities - and do it fast. There are quick ways to do this, simply by changing policies and rules, instead of building new roads and offices. For example, there are light industrial estates peppered along Woodlands/Sembawang, and some in the northern central areas like Thomson, Toa Payoh, Ang Mo Kio, and even in the East like Eunos, Bedok, Changi. These places are affordable, but it is just that it's not exactly an exciting place to work. Perhaps if Ah Gong can loosen up on some legislation and licensing, these can be lively business parks where people can work and play.

One of the limitations currently is that entertainment outlets like pubs have limited alcohol retail licence, as well as public entertainment restrictions. While those in town can operate way past 1 to 2 am, those in the suburbs can only do so until maybe 12.30 am or 1. Also, no live music is allowed, although karaoke is ok. There are also trade restrictions for certain zones. I was at Midview City recently and was told that only a certain number of F and B, retail, childcare and other non "light-industrial" trades are allowed to operate.

If Singapore is serious about easing transport woes, it should look into the problem from all angles. Why do people NOT want to set up shop outside of CBD, even though there are places and space available? The thing is - no one goes to work just to work. Work time is easily more than 50% of our "awake" time, and we want to make work part of our lives - work-life balance. All the amenities, entertainment and shops in an industrial, commercial zone provides the much needed psychological markers to help the days and weeks go by pleasantly. We don't need to all trot to town if we can get our fix near where we work.

This "quick fix" may not be a permanent solution, but it buys time for the permanent solutions like public transport infra to develop. Who knows? By the time people get used to having a drink after work at Woodlands Bizlink or chill out at Midview City at Sin Ming, peak hour road traffic may actually get redistributed...

Public transport: All the Wrong Fixes

You've heard it so many times - complaints about our public transport system. Crowded, long waits, packed, unpleasant, etc....and the complaints pile up everyday to a point where it costed PAP votes and forced a change in leadership of the ministry. Tipping Point!

Billions of dollars are being spent to increase the frequencies of our MRT trains, but there is a real safety limit of how close each train can be between one another.Alas, engineering can be expensive and challenging. 

However, I strongly feel that LTA has got it WRONG this time. Look at the complaints carefully - angst, frustrations, crowding, waits....all are valid, and there are even tons of STOMP pictures of masses of people at stations and trains. What ever it is, one thing is clearly absent: no one is complaining that they are late. So why are we spending taxpayers money (which in turn translate to fare hikes) on the wrong thing?

The thing is, it is not how fast the trains are, or how many trains you have - it is the perception and quality of the wait. A classic psychology case study is that of Sasser et al's elevator ride. People complained about how slow the elevators were, and when a mirror was installed (and some time later, elevator musak was born), the complaints went down. The problem, correctly framed, is a perception rather than an engineering problem. David Maister wrote a great summary called The Psychology of Waiting Lines.

I must confess that I'm not a regular public transport commuter, but whenever I can, I would prefer to take a bus or train and leave the car at home. I enjoyed taking the buses when there was TV Mobile, and time seemed to pass so fast when Tan Ah Teck was telling his "long long ago" story to his kids, and sometimes I wished the bus would be slower just so I could finish the show!

You don't have to spend billions of dollars to buy more trains or build more tracks. Just spend money to make the wait more pleasant - music, videos, comfort.....allow baskers to liven up the mood at the platforms during peak hours, show The Noose or re-runs of PCK, pipe easy-listening music, or better yet, have your own MRT in-house radio station where commuters can SMS in to request songs or make dedications....and that, I believe, is the final missing piece of  a world class public transport system.

The Folly of Success: HDB and the woes of Singaporeans

With the elections out of the way, it's time to address the issues bothering Singaporeans. 

For this analysis, I have to give a little more background before explaining how HDB has played a significant role, consciously or unconsciously,  in the woes of Singaporeans.  And of course, I'll throw in a proposal on what needs to be done.

BACKGROUND

Oftentimes we hear pockets of conversations about foreign talent, declining birth rates, expensive public housing, crowded public transport, traffic jams, shortage of HDB parking spaces, rising food costs, greying population etc. These are the very issues which touches the HEART of Singaporeans, and these are also the reasons why PAP lost ground. Winning hearts and minds is important for any government to do well. Unfortunately, the former is much harder than the latter for obvious reasons.

But what then is the fundamental issue? In order to make sense of the numerous issues, you cannot address them in isolation. Such is the challenge of a complex adaptive situation. Fundamental to all is this: population size.  The government has rightly pointed out that we need a critical mass of 6.5 million or more to survive, or rather, thrive strategically. Given no natural resources other than people, no one can argue that our options for the means of survival is limited to only people, or human resource. This must be communicated clearly and repeatedly to all Singaporeans....something which the government has yet to do.

The solutioning so far for all the problems have been ineffective. Even in the cases where they are effective, they create other problems. One such example is the import of labour at both ends of the job market. You increase the work force and critical mass but create social problems like an escalating sense of xenophobia. Using Levels of Perspectives, you would realize that the issues are framed rather low at the Event or Behaviour levels, and solutions are reactionary and often not permanent. 

The results of the Cabinet reshuffle speaks for itself - First Order Change is needed in Housing and Transport. The internal security change is just repentance.

HDB: THE FOLLY OF SUCCESS

The HDB is the pride of the Singapore Success Story. We owe a big debt of gratitude to Mr Lim Kim San for such a successful public housing program. Incidentally, I had the honor to be part of the pall-bearers for Mr Lim's state-assisted funeral. 

The HDB is the SHARPEST tool our government has in shaping our social fabric, because it creates the structure of Singapore's society. From racial quotas, family size, elderly care, childcare etc...all of these are driven by the way we live. The HDB started off in the context of a young nation with industrial aspirations, and the overly successful "Stop at 2" policy. Today, we have moved on to the Information Age, and our economy is no longer driven by production lines but by services or high-end manufacturing. 

If you look at HDB flats, we are always "oversold" in terms of rooms! A 5-room flat doesn't have 5 bedrooms, but only 3,  while 3-room/4 room flats have only 2.  Whichever way you see it, personal space in HDB is limited to either 2 or 3. There are some with 4, but these are exceptions and few.

It is EXACTLY this design problem which has caused our woes, because HDB is overly successful in implementing a STOP-AT-2 policy, and forgot to adapt to the new economic landscape. Imagine living in a 3 bedroom apartment (5 room flat). The master bedroom is for the young couple, the centre of the family nucleus. 2 other rooms will either be for 2 kids and maid (this is already a structural component of our economy), or 1 kid and 1 study/computer room (we ARE in the Information Age already).  It will be similar for 2 bedroom apartments. 

Because of this, you have all the daily problems compounded over time to become socio-economic problems that threaten national survival. Couples getting married will be hesitant to want more than 1 kid because there is simply not enough space, given today's social norms. The family nucleus is at best a two-generation model, and grandparents live apart, probably in another block or part of Singapore. The best childcare is probably family, which for Singaporeans past and present, are grandparents. So the couple drops Junior off at Ah Gong Ah Ma's place before work, and then go over to Ah Gong Ah Ma's place after work to pick up the kid, and also have dinner. In order to do so, they have to park their car at Ah Gong Ah Ma's HDB car park, which pisses residents off when they can't find parking. For those who don't drive, they have to take the train or bus to get from work to Ah Gong Ah Ma, and later cab or train/bus back home.

All these reaches a tipping point that becomes what we are facing today. Low birth rates, inconveniences, and future elderly care worries. All because structurally, we are forced to live that way. The grouses of escalating housing costs, food costs, foreigners etc are second- and third order issues that stem from something as fundamental as HDB's folly of success.

THE WAY AHEAD

I don't have the resources for research and modeling, but I feel this is worth exploring by MND. 

1) Revamp flat designs COMPLETELY. Stop the 3/4/5 room classifications and sell them AS IS, i.e., count bedrooms rather than over-inflate the room count. It was necessary last time to give kampong folks a sense of progress and value for money, but hey, stop kidding us. We are a product of the other pride of the Singapore Story called education.

2) Change baseline flat designs to have minimum of 4 bedrooms, of which 2 come with attached bathrooms. The reason is simple. You want to have a 3-generation family nucleus that is self-sustainable in terms of childcare and elder care. Having 2 bedrooms with attached bathrooms facilitates procreation, and privacy. Ah Gong Ah Ma will still need to cuddle and make out/wash up, and Young Couple will need to do the do to make babies. The other bedrooms will be boys' room and girls' room, or children's room and study room, or whatever configurations deem fit. It can EVEN be sublet out to foreigners like Malaysians and Philipinos working in our IRs or hospitals.

3) Keep the price of these new flats the same as current 5 room flats. Come on, we all know the price of public housing is over-inflated and not priced by building cost. Land cost is free, and all of us have the right to own it because we defend it too. But that's water under the bridge, so no point arguing to correct the mistake. The mistake had been made, but correcting it will be more costly, so I guess we have to live with that. However, it would appeal to Singaporeans if you price bigger flats at the same price of older flats. Put in controls like 10 year no-sell period for new generation flats. Why 10 years? Well, it stabilizes the market, and it also takes about 10 years to have 3 kids.


4) Nationally, MCYS should promote the 3-generation family nucleus. Bring back the San Dai Tong Tang. It takes time for bonds to develop deep enough for us, as a gracious society, to say "NO" to old folks' home. I can share my anecdotal stories, but that's for another blog.

The benefits, I believe, will solve many of our socio-economic issues. Better integration with foreigners, increase TFR, structurally prepare for self-sustaining elder care, better use of land, less short-term parking demands at HDB, reduced transport load (ok this is a stretch, but I think so la..).

Views, anyone?